Welcome to the November edition of the ‘Brexit Monthly Digest’ newsletter. In this month’s report, we discuss the disagreement between the UK and EU over its plans with Northern Ireland, how Brexit may cause bigger problems for the UK economy than Covid-19, and an update on the growth of the UK manufacturing industry. We also share upcoming events in November from the Greater Manchester Chamber of Commerce, that are supporting businesses post Brexit.
UK and EU disagreement causes Northern Ireland row to escalate
Disagreement over Northern Ireland plans between the UK and EU has caused tension, as European Commission Vice-President Maros Sefcovic said he was "increasingly concerned" the UK was embarking on "a path of confrontation".
He said: "I am increasingly concerned that the UK Government will refuse to engage with this and embark on a path of confrontation."
The plan is to ensure an open border on the island of Ireland. However, the UK wants “key changes” to the plan, known as the Northern Ireland Protocol, while the EU has suggested a more “modest package” of measures that would reduce its practical impact. (BBC News)
Impacts of Brexit on economy could be ‘worse than Covid’
Chairman of the Office for Budget Responsibility, Richard Highs believes the impact of Brexit on the UK economy could be worse in the long run, in comparison to the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic.
It is expected that leaving the EU could potentially reduce the UK’s GDP by 4% in the long term, whilst the pandemic would reduce GDP “by a further 2%”.
His comments come after the OBR said the cost of living could rise at its fastest rate for 30 years, with suggestions inflation could hit almost 5%. (BBC News)
Supply chain disruption and job shortages stunts manufacturing growth
The UK’s manufacturing sector continued to grow over the last month as the IHS Markit and CIPS Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) recorded a core of 57.8 in October, compared to 57.1 in September.
However, despite growth, the speed of the growth was at the slowest pace for eight months due to “staff shortages and declining intake of new export work stymieing the upturn” according to Rob Dobson, Director at HIS Markit.
He said: “This low growth environment is occurring in tandem with a severe upshot in inflationary pressures, with manufacturers reporting both a near-record increase in input costs and record rise in selling prices.” (Independent)
Greater Manchester Chamber of Commerce: November Events
- International Trade Events - Latin America & Caribbean (08/11/2021)
- GMCC Leaders Series (09/11/2021)
- Peer Networks (09/11/2021)
- GMCC Networking - Physical Event (16/11/2021)
- GMCC Bitesize session - EU VAT Obligations for Ecommerce Sellers (18/11/2021)
- International Trade Events: DIT (19/11/2021)
- GMCC Networking - Physical Event (30/11/2021)